Vertically-Linked Ecosystem Modeling
We will link climate with physical oceanography, lower and upper trophic levels, and economic outcomes through innovative modeling.
GOALS: To improve our ability to predict:
- production and distribution of lower trophic level species, forage species, fishes, seabirds and marine mammals
- local impacts on predators, fishermen, and fishery value
Vertically-linked models allow:
- two-way coupling between ecosystem components, which provides better feedback between components than one-way coupling. For example, the forage and euphausiid dynamics model will be implemented within the spatial ocean-lower trophic level model. This two-way coupling is critical as forage species and zooplankton exhibit strong reactions to each other’s activities.
- forecasts of economic effects for fisheries dependent on climate scenarios, such as increased operating costs for pollock vessels due to ocean warming effects on southeast Bering Sea pollock.
- depiction of uncertainty in economic forecasts.
The Projects
Forage euphausiid abundance in space in time, B70 | Lead: Kerim Aydin
Integrate economic-ecological models of pollock and cod, B71 | Lead: Michael Dalton; co-PI: Kerim Aydin
Spatially explicit integrated model of pollock and cod, B72 | Lead: Alan Haynie
Management strategy evaluation, B73 | Lead: Andre Punt; co-PI: Jim Ianelli
Competing fur seal-seabird-pollock model, B74 | Lead: Marc Mangel
Correlative biomass dynamics model, B75| Lead: Franz Mueter; co-PI: Gordon Kruse