We will link climate with physical oceanography, lower and upper trophic levels, and economic outcomes through innovative modeling.
Our goals are to improve our ability to predict:
- production and distribution of lower trophic level species, forage species, fishes, seabirds and marine mammals
- local impacts on predators, fishermen, and fishery value
Vertically-linked models allow:
- two-way coupling between ecosystem components, which provides better feedback between components than one-way coupling. For example, the forage and euphausiid dynamics model will be implemented within the spatial ocean-lower trophic level model. This two-way coupling is critical as forage species and zooplankton exhibit strong reactions to each other’s activities.
- forecasts of economic effects for fisheries dependent on climate scenarios, such as increased operating costs for pollock vessels due to ocean warming effects on southeast Bering Sea pollock.
- depiction of uncertainty in economic forecasts.
- Forage euphausiid abundance in space in time | Lead: Kerim Aydin
- Integrate economic-ecological models of pollock and cod | Lead: Michael Dalton; co-PI: Kerim Aydin
- Spatially explicit integrated model of pollock and cod | Lead: Alan Haynie
- Management strategy evaluation | Lead: Andre Punt; co-PI: Jim Ianelli
- Competing fur seal-seabird-pollock model | Lead: Marc Mangel
- Correlative biomass dynamics model | Lead: Gordon Kruse; co-PI: Franz Mueter
Ecosystem Modeling Committee
The Ecosystem Modeling Committee (EMC) of the North Pacific Research Board has established standards for guiding the ecosystem modeling process for the BEST-BSIERP Bering Sea Project. More about the EMC
Current members are:
- Dr. Tim Barnett,
University of California San Diego
- Dr. Richard Beamish,
Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC
- Dr. Dan Goodman,
Montana State University
- Dr. George Hunt,
University of California Irvine
- Dr. Phil Mundy,
NOAA Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau
- Dr. Tom Royer,
Old Dominion University, Virginia