Vertically-Linked Ecosystem Modeling

We will link climate with physical oceanography, lower and upper trophic levels, and economic outcomes through innovative modeling.

production and distribution of lower trophic level species, forage species, fishes, seabirds and marine mammals
local impacts on predators, fishermen, and fishery value

two-way coupling between ecosystem components, which provides better feedback between components than one-way coupling. For example, the forage and euphausiid dynamics model will be implemented within the spatial ocean-lower trophic level model. This two-way coupling is critical as forage species and zooplankton exhibit strong reactions to each other’s activities.
forecasts of economic effects for fisheries dependent on climate scenarios, such as increased operating costs for pollock vessels due to ocean warming effects on southeast Bering Sea pollock.
depiction of uncertainty in economic forecasts.

Forage euphausiid abundance in space in time, B70 | Lead: Kerim Aydin

Integrate economic-ecological models of pollock and cod, B71 | Lead: Michael Dalton; co-PI: Kerim Aydin

Spatially explicit integrated model of pollock and cod, B72 | Lead: Alan Haynie

Management strategy evaluation, B73 | Lead: Andre Punt; co-PI: Jim Ianelli

Competing fur seal-seabird-pollock model, B74 | Lead: Marc Mangel

Correlative biomass dynamics model, B75| Lead: Franz Mueter; co-PI: Gordon Kruse